Compelled by crushing sanctions and crumbling economy, the Burmese (Myanmar if you want the present day official word for Burma) the unprofessional military junta is left with no option but to turn to the west for deliverance. No surprise therefore that Senior-General Than Shwe is looking for opportunities to mend fences with the US in particular and in the process gain a little bit of legitimacy to his rule.
October 9 provided the first window. On that day, Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, who remains under house arrest, was driven to a government guesthouse to meet acting U.S. Charge d'affaire Thomas Vajda, British Ambassador Andrew Heyn, who represented the European Union, and Australian Deputy Head of Mission Simon Christopher Starr for an hour to discuss the possible lifting of sanctions on Burma. The surprise meeting with diplomats followed two consultation sessions in early October between Aung San Suu Kyi and the junta's liaison and Labor Minister Aung Kyi, to discuss her proposal of Sept. 25 to help end sanctions against the regime.
In the meantime, the United States is planning to send a remarkable mission to Burma so as to engage the military junta after decades of unfriendliness. Kurt Campbell, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, and Scot Marciel, a deputy assistant secretary, are visiting Yangon on Nov. 3 and 4.
Kurt Campbell said the mission would follow up on talks in September in New York, which marked the highest-level US contact with the regime in nearly a decade. It began in last September when Campbell met with Myanmar’s Science, Technology and Labor Minister U Thaung in New York.
The US Mission is meeting Prime Minister Thein Sein in the new administrative capital of Naypyidaw on Nov 3; its meets Suu Kyi and executive committee members of her National League for Democracy (NLD) on Nov 4, a source in Rangoon said on condition of anonymity. But, the US officials are unlikely to ‘get an audience’ with the Big Boss, Than Shwe, who appears keen still to play the game from the curtain as usual.
Campbell doesn’t appear to over optimistic of the outcome of the visit. In fact, during testimony on 21 October before a House of Representatives Committee, he had sounded a word of caution. ‘We expect engagement with Burma (Myanmar) to be a long, slow, painful and step-by-step process’.
The National League for Democracy, the party of Aung San Suu Kyi, sees the US Mission visit as a "good thing."
"We welcome their visit and hope Daw Aung San Suu Kyi will be allowed to meet Mr Campbell,” party spokesman Nyan Win told the media on the eve of the visit.
On the very day (Oct 9) Aung San Suu Kyi met western diplomats, Than Shwe spoke in the capital, of plans to hold a general election as scheduled in 2010. He also indicated that he would not yield to the demand of domestic and international critics that the military-sponsored constitution should be revised ahead of the election..
The 2008 Constitution, the junta said, was “approved” by more than 90 per cent of eligible voters during a referendum in May 2008. The outcome of the referendum was widely dismissed as a sham. But, the regime has constantly disregarded calls from the international community and Burma’s main opposition party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), to review the constitution.
Although there are 10 registered political parties in Burma, most of them are stock-still. The most important thing to be done is to proclaim an electoral law allowing new parties to form and register to contest in the elections. The international community, led by the UN, has constantly stated that the election be all-inclusive, free and fair.
In its ‘Shwe-gon-dine declaration’ dated 29th April 2009, the NLD had set two conditions for its participation in the 2010 election. One amend provisions in the statute which are not in harmony with democratic principles. Two hold an all-inclusive free and fair poll under international supervision.
The majority of Western nations have demanded release Suu Kyi and over 2,100 other political prisoners as a first step toward democratization of the country, which has been under military rule since 1962.
In fact, both the West and the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon have warned Than Shwe that the world community would not recognize the poll verdict unless the NLD participates in the election and polls and Aung San Suu Kyi is freed from house incarceration.
Burma came under international sanctions in 1988 when the military mercilessly cracked down on pro-democracy demonstrations, leaving an estimated 3,000 people dead. The US and the EU increased their sanctions after the junta refused to acknowledge the NLD's victory in 1990 elections and then arrested opponents and suppressed every type of opposition. Most of the sanctions target the top generals in particular.
Apart from sanctions by the US and the European Union, the regime is suffering assorted sanctions from Australia, Canada and Japan. The regime has been left without development assistance from International financial institutions such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the Asia Development Bank. If the regime ignored calls from the international community to promote a favourable setting for a free and fair election prior to 2010, international sanctions may become harsher than now.
Than Shwe has hinted his willingness to open a political dialogue with Suu Kyi if she agreed working together on the sanctions issue. However, in his speech to the War Veterans Organization, Than Shwe said that some powerful nations are playing to force and influence Burma under various pretexts. Undoubtedly, NLD leader was allowed to meet with western diplomats with an eye to influence the west and make them ease sanctions. Also to persuade the world opinion into supporting the so-called discipline-flourishing democracy and the 2010 election.
According to some analysts, there is no improvement at all in the ground situation – there are more restrictions on media and civil societies, more control on Internet users, more arrests, more political prisoners, and more military attacks in the ethnic minority areas. So, not only civilian people but also military personnel do not believe the so-called discipline-flourishing democracy or Than Shwe’s model democracy.
Sources in military say that Senior General and his top operators face difficulty in promoting the seven-step road map. His top brass is divided on the election strategy; even some higher-ranking officers want to negotiate for genuine peace with opposition, including Aung San Suu Kyi. But the military chief by no means takes notice of establishing table-talk.
Than Shwe as an ex-psychological warfare officer who used to crackdown on his opponents at any cost doesn't take risk to free his archrival Aung San Suu Kyi because of fears of his own defeat and eventual ouster. On the contrary, Aung San Suu Kyi has shown no disinclination to talk about any subject matter on the dialogue table. She has willingly called for talk with the junta since she has founded the NLD.
So, Mr. Kurt Campbell’s mission should seek to convince Than Shwe to cooperate in finding a solution to break the political deadlock. The military regime must be converted into optimistic component. It must stop finding fault with the Lady, the NLD and the ethnic parties which is prolonging the misery and hopelessness of the people of Burma.
The military junta has unilaterally declared plans to hold the country's first election in two decades next year as part of its seven-step road map, which is actually designed as a sham exercise to entrench the military's hold on power.
People around the world are keenly watching whether the United States’ ongoing special diplomatic mission to the military-ruled country can make a significant breakthrough.
* Zin Linn, a freelance Burmese journalist, lives in exile. He is also vice-president of Burma Media Association, which is affiliated with the Paris-based Reporters Sans Frontiers.
- Asian Tribune -
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